This is rare for me because I usually don’t take totals without knowing the umpire but that won’t be announced to later and I am ready to pull this trigger now. Both teams are hitting the ball well early (thanks to Washington) and the wind is blowing out tonight. The starting pitchers are less than stellar and the pens give up some runs. Here come your trends: Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter–Over is 11-3 in Braves last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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Now on to the game. I am not a fan of either team so it is very easy for me to stay neutral in this game. I am a big fan of the Cardinals mainly because they are an underdog and in this game it is very easy to root for the Cinderella story! The problem is this clock has struck midnight. The Cardinals had a great run and I am impressed with Warner and love the fact that everyone now knows who Larry Fitzgerald is, but sorry Cardinals fans the Steelers have the edge here.
Let’s start with experience which almost every Steeler player has and teams playing in their first Super Bowl versus an experienced opponent are 5-11 ATS.That’s not all.
The hardest one for me to ignore is that highly rated defense. Objectors would state that Philly had the #3 defense, but it does not match to this defense and the plan that Dick LeBeau can come up with to counter whatever the Cardinals throw at them. The guy is a defensive genius! He has a game plan that will take some time for Warner and his gifted wideouts to get used to. In the meantime the Cardinals offense will have their hands full because the running game is solid for the Steelers and if that is not enough the passing game behind Big Ben is not too shabby either. He has the reliable Hines Ward and deep threats with Holmes and Co. The Cardinals have to be flawless or they are looking at a hole that they will have to play out of.
It won’t happen and the pressure will cause Warner to go back to his turnover ways and abandon the run. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS off home win and 32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better. Steelers roll!
The Jazz come in with some revenge for an absolute drubbing they took in San Antonio last time out. Utah has cashed five of six versus San Antonio at Energy Solutions Arena and have cashed 20 of 27 versus Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs are 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less and the Jazz are 11-2 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses. It may be asking a lot for the Spurs to lose again but I will take the home team here.
Back after a break with some solid plays for the NBA!
The theme tonight seems to be bad teams and small lines, and that usually sets off my radar. Everyone has the it looks to good to be true theory and the stinky line. The theory is Vegas is on to something or it looks too good to be true and this is all over the place tonight and in the first game.
Phoenix just -4 at lowly Washington? What gives? Normally I would hop all over this game and take the home team getting the small points, but not here. I have noticed when teams are on a extended road trip in the NBA the goal is to go .500 or better. If the Suns get that they can achieve a 3-3 mark on this trip and that might be just what the Suns need to motivate them here. I am staying away from the this side but I will play the total.
The Suns realized that is they play some defense they may win and the shut out the Hawks in the last six minutes of the game and that is something that they will preach tonight to try and get another win. On the other side of the ball the Wizards return from a road trip and this is always a good time to back the under if the road trip was three games or more. This game should go under the posted total as the Suns lead with defense and the Wizards are still sluggish from the road.
Like Washington +4 who very well could cover…… the next game follows suit with a small number as the Rockets are just 2 point favorites on the road against the Knicks. This one I really want to bite on but the problem is you never know who is going to show up for the Rockets. When T-Mac is in Yao is not or Artest is out. The thing is I don’t think it matters tonight and I like the Knicks here as I think they should be favored.
i like it even more if Yao suits up. The Rockets are 5-15 ATS after an ATS win and the Knicks are 11-1 ATS after scoring 105+ in 3 straight game. The Knicks are playing inspired basketball and they will get the win at home tonight.
Miami takes on the Heat in the next game and they are off a very big win in a game against the Magic. “It’s very satisfying to get this one,” Wade said. “We had to prove to ourselves, once again, that we can beat the elite teams.” This shows just how much it meant and how letdown will be in effect tonight. In fact it also sets up for some bad trends for Heat backers, they are just 2-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and they are 3-10 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent.
The Hawks need to start winning and the Heat may be just what they need. They are 12-4 ATS as road pups and should catch the Heat napping. The Hawks and the points is how I am headed tonight.