Will be back postintg hoops on a regualr basis so make sure to check out the blog when you can!
Ohio St +2
Over Bulls/Rockets 197.5
The Jazz come in with some revenge for an absolute drubbing they took in San Antonio last time out. Utah has cashed five of six versus San Antonio at Energy Solutions Arena and have cashed 20 of 27 versus Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs are 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less and the Jazz are 11-2 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses. It may be asking a lot for the Spurs to lose again but I will take the home team here.
This is it for me tonight!
Back after a break with some solid plays for the NBA!
The theme tonight seems to be bad teams and small lines, and that usually sets off my radar. Everyone has the it looks to good to be true theory and the stinky line. The theory is Vegas is on to something or it looks too good to be true and this is all over the place tonight and in the first game.
Phoenix just -4 at lowly Washington? What gives? Normally I would hop all over this game and take the home team getting the small points, but not here. I have noticed when teams are on a extended road trip in the NBA the goal is to go .500 or better. If the Suns get that they can achieve a 3-3 mark on this trip and that might be just what the Suns need to motivate them here. I am staying away from the this side but I will play the total.
The Suns realized that is they play some defense they may win and the shut out the Hawks in the last six minutes of the game and that is something that they will preach tonight to try and get another win. On the other side of the ball the Wizards return from a road trip and this is always a good time to back the under if the road trip was three games or more. This game should go under the posted total as the Suns lead with defense and the Wizards are still sluggish from the road.
Like Washington +4 who very well could cover…… the next game follows suit with a small number as the Rockets are just 2 point favorites on the road against the Knicks. This one I really want to bite on but the problem is you never know who is going to show up for the Rockets. When T-Mac is in Yao is not or Artest is out. The thing is I don’t think it matters tonight and I like the Knicks here as I think they should be favored.
i like it even more if Yao suits up. The Rockets are 5-15 ATS after an ATS win and the Knicks are 11-1 ATS after scoring 105+ in 3 straight game. The Knicks are playing inspired basketball and they will get the win at home tonight.
Miami takes on the Heat in the next game and they are off a very big win in a game against the Magic. “It’s very satisfying to get this one,” Wade said. “We had to prove to ourselves, once again, that we can beat the elite teams.” This shows just how much it meant and how letdown will be in effect tonight. In fact it also sets up for some bad trends for Heat backers, they are just 2-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and they are 3-10 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent.
The Hawks need to start winning and the Heat may be just what they need. They are 12-4 ATS as road pups and should catch the Heat napping. The Hawks and the points is how I am headed tonight.
If I have more time later I will post reasons for the rest but since I am fighting against the clock I will post all of these now.
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My NBA picks have been heating up and I have a few more for tonight!
The Kings take on the Nuggets after they played a tough game yesterday against Houston. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS of late in back-to-back mode.The Kings have covered five straight at the Pepsi Center and the road team is 8-0-1 in the last nine tussles. Playing with revenge and getting the Nuggets in a good spot equals a live dog with the Kings. The Kings also have a sweet system in their favor.
Play On underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 30 points or more, who are well rested team, playing only their 2nd game in five days.
This has been a tremendous wager, with the underdog 26-4 ATS the last five seasons.Finally the Kings are 23-11 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two years.Get the points now and take a shot with the Kings.
Spurs / Pacers Over 207.5
This high number is something that Spurs bettors are not used to and the first instinct is to jump on the under. The style of basketball that Indiana pays suggests that exact opposite.
The shoot quick and look for transition an if you look close at the Spurs at home they can score points as well. San Antonio has zipped over in six straight at home and in five of seven against non-conference foes. These two teams always tend to score on the high side. The over is 11-2 in the last dozen duels. Take a flier on the over!
MLK day is full of great hoops so my goal is to cover every game and give out my thoughts and angles that I can dig up on the games. Even though I am going to go over every game does not mean I am going to play it. If I put (Lean: ) then the play that means I am not going to play it but if I did I would play it that way. If I put (Play: ) by the play then I am plaing it and it will count towards the record.
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Okay now that is all cleared up let’s get started.
Dallas @ Philly
Chicago @ New York
In this first game I will have a play for sure. It’s tough to back the Knicks considering the funk they have been in, but I like them in this spot. They are at home for an early start against the Bulls. Danilo Gallinari, the Knicks top pick is finally starting to get some playing time and he is good offensively he will not get a ton of minutes but he is a fan favoirte and can score. This boost of energy will only help the Knicks in this game. Chicago has lost nine of its last 11 on the road and failed to cash seven of 10. The Bulls are 8-19 ATS versus Atlantic Division competition.Chicago has played relatively error basketball lately, which has been problematic in the past being 6-17ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.Finally the Knickerbockers are 14-5 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.
Play: Knicks -2.5 Lean: Under 210
San Antonio @ Charlotte
The Spurs take to the road to take on the Bobcats and this will end a modest three game road trip as they return home after this game. The Bobcats are quietly winning and have won three straight as they come into this game. The Spurs have owned the Bobcats in the past and may come into this one not expecting much from a suprising Bobcats team. The Bobcats pulled off a under the radar trade for DeSagana Diop and he looks like he will be in uniform and that gives the Bobcats help with size and defense a Larry Brown philosphy. The Bobcats have also covered five of their last seven while the Spurs have dropped six of seven ATS versus non-conference rivals.With Diop there it will free up Okafor to play forward and give Brown flexibility. The home teams hold serve.
Play: Bobcats +4 Lean: Over 178
Toronto @ Atlanta
The Raptors are injured and playing badly and are off yet another close loss yesterday to the Suns. The Hawks have injuries and are playing badly and are just 2-6 since the New Year started. Because of that this game is a complete pass for me. I watched the Raptors and they have some solid young talent that scored and looked great yesterday but they look to have just ten bodies if O’neal plays and in back to back games that is not a good thing. The Hawks are playing badly and could have Horford and Williams out for today and that could hurt rebounding and scoring. I just can’t back a favorite with those kinds of problems. Trend wise both teams are in trouble. Toronto has lost four straight overall and five of six on the road. Atlanta has five of its last six while failing to cash six of eight. This is a pass for me.
Lean: Raptors +5.5 and over 198
Denver @ Houston
The Rockets are somehow winning without two of the best players as Artest and T-Mac are both sidelined. Yao Ming is picking up the slack and came up with a career type game in te last time out. Today the face Denver coming in off the longest home stand of the season. This game has all the makings of a shootout with Denver always pushing the tempo and Houston getting points from some lesser known players that can easily get caught up in the running game. That is bad news for the Rockets because in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points they are just 2-8 ATS. The Nuggets have won three of their last four on the highway.Houston has failed in nine of its last 13 overall ATS, including five of seven at home. This leads to a play on Denver and that looks good for the over too. Denver has flown over in nine of its last dozen duels and the Rockets have followed suit in six of seven versus Northwest Division teams and in 10 of 14 against conference competition.
Plays: Denver +3 and Over 194
Indiana @ New Orleans
The Hornets return home after beating the Pistons to salvage a road trip and erase a painful performance against the Cavs. The Pacers hit the road after doing well to include winning three straight. This game is a buzz saw waiting to happen in my eyes. I will pass on the total because I believe if you like the Hornets in this game the under is a more attractive play and if you like the Pacers the over is a more attractive game but it could be a toss up either way. With this in mind I am going to pass on the total and work on the side. The Hornets are relieved to get home and play some of theri best basketball there as they are 12-5 this year. Hornets are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central. The Pacers are a much different team on the road and it will show today in the Big easy.
Play: Hornets -8
Lean: Under 209 (Under is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings)
Minnesota @ Clippers
The big thing in this game is Camby who is listed as day to day and hurt himself in the last game out and is the reason this line jumped from 3 to 5. I don’t expect him to play in this game today and that should be good news for the red hot T-wolves. The truth of the matter is I don’t know if I trust Kevin Mcchale as coach just yet. I have watched a few of these games and have seen some minor rookie mistakes that could cost his team in a close games. The Wolves are on a roll and have revenge in this game. This line is set to just about right and it may be asking a bit much to have the Wolves as a road chalk. Love is a rebounding machine and as a whole the Wolves are scoring in bunces. Minnesota has won six of its last seven and cashed at a 9-2-1 clip since Dec. 23. The Wolves have also covered six straight on the road and seven in a row against conference foes.The Clippers are 9-25 ATS at home and 5-21 ATS when playing on Monday. Taking a road favorite today in this spot.
Play: Wolves -5 (no play at -7)
Lean: Under 194
Washington @ Golden St.
Golden St is 5 point favorites at home? It seems weird for a team this bad to be favorites at home against anyone considering when they do win at home its by an average of .07. Golden St does have revenge in this game but they are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite and 1-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. The Wizards have dropped 10 of their last 11 on the road. They have covered six of their last seven against Western outfits. In a game that has the potential to be this ugly its best to pass.
Lean: Wizards +5 and Under 217
Pistons @ Grizzlies
Phoenix @ Boston
Boston has rebounded after an ugly losing stretch of 2-7 to get solid wins over Toronto and New Jersey twice, but today they step it up a notch when they face the Suns in Boston. The Suns played yesterday and are still trying to adjust to the new style of basketball that Porter is putting in. They are burning bankrolls in the meantime and are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Celtics have covered 10 of 13 at home and nine of 12 against Pacific Division opponents. To prove they are back to playing the way the should a win against the Suns would go along way. Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Suns seemed to fade in the last quarters against Toronto which could mean they are showing signs of getting tired on the east coast trip. Celtics are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and that shows that they get up for home games against good talent.
Play: Boston -8
Lean: OVER 203
Milwaukee @ Portland
I am going to go straight for the total here and pass on the side. The Blazers are a good club but coming off a road trip where they looked tired and Roy did not look like he was 100%. The Bucks have alternated wins and losses forever and after a loss against the Clippers they may get the win but that is not something I could bet on.Five straight shootouts in Oregon have bounced over, as have nine of 10 series scrapes overall. Milwaukee has zipped over in eight of its last nine contests.Over is 10-3 in Bucks last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-5 in Bucks last 17 vs. NBA Northwest.
Play: Over 193.5
Lean: Milwaukee +6
Cleveland @ Lakers
Its only fitting that the best game of the day is the last one as the Cavs travel to LA to face Kobe and the Lakers. This game lines up as a pick ’em for me so the 5 points seems like a gift to me. Everywhere I look the trends favor the Cavs to yet I feel like the lakers could be the play here. The Cavs are traveling and the Lakers are off a tough loss and Phil jackson had to send out the rally cry to get the troop sready for this game. I think the defense of Delonte West will be missed more than people think and without size down low the Lakers should have the edge in this game. homecooking always helps in big games like this and I will take the lakers. This game should be defensive effort and the laker spull away late!
Play: Lakers -5
Play: Under 204
I love Friday nights in the NBA and I hope to keep winning!
The Wizards have been the Knicks whipping boys for the season as the Knicks look to try and sweep the season series against them. This is easier said then done and is the same thing the Cavs were trying to do last night. They failed and so will the Knicks. Take the Wizards to trounce the Knicks and get revenge.
I love a hot NBA team at home on a Friday night.Philadelphia will be looking to extend its season-high five game winning streak and cash its seventh straight. San Antonio has struggled against the 76ers, dropping 13 of 16 spread decisions, including six of eight at the Wachovia Center. The Sixers pull off another big win against a team from the West.
The Thunder have been playing well of late and should win this on the court.Detroit is 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 and OKC is 17-7 ATS after an ATS win.The lowly Thunder have ‘covered’ four straight, 14 of their last 17 and eight in a row at home. Detroit has dropped eight of its last 11 non-conference outings ATS and 13 of its last 18 against Northwest Division opponents. The Thunder is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against Eastern foes. The thunder rolls at home tonight.
With football winding down I wanted to turn my attention to the NBA for tonight’s small card.
I love to bet on the NBA almost as much as football and if you study long enough you will find some great angles on the games. Here is my card for TNT Thursday!
All Lines are provided by Bet Jamaica!
I always try to post my games with write ups explaining why I picked them so stop back when you can and let me know what you think!
Thursday Night Games:
Both of these teams do well in back to back spots but the Blazers are in three in four nights for tonight’s game. Younger teams have trouble staying focused on the road especially when they are far from home. Which should explain the loss last night. Portland is 1-6 ATS after consecutive non-conference games and the Nets are 6-1 ATS after allowing 110+ point. New Jersey has covered seven of its last 10 against non-conference foes and have a good matchup with size at the center spot.
Play On – Home teams vs. the money line (NEW JERSEY) off a loss against a division rival against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite
38-18 since 1997. ( 67.9% | 24.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )
I really like to back the Bulls in this game because they are healthy again and the win in Toronto last night is huge for this team. They now return home to face a team that is looking to sweep the season series and that should give them the motivation. It’s a bit sketchy with the schedule stretch for this Bulls team but this game is circled for them and they will play to the end. The home team is 15-6 ATS in this series.
In what should be one of the best games of the night the Suns play in Denver. Denver has been a pleasant surprise this year. The suns are 0-8 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 and the Nuggets are a sweet 47-34 ATS as a favorite. Denver has won nine of its last dozen and six of seven at home.The Nuggets have cashed four straight series clashes at home and the home team is 13-3 in the past 16 showdowns. Phoenix has come up short in seven of its last 10 on the road ATS and get beat tonight!