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My superbowl selection is posted below in the next post or you can go do it here:

https://takeagamble.wordpress.com/2009/01/29/superbowl-xliii-and-the-winner-is/

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Superbowl XLIII
Superbowl XLIII

Superbowl XLIII and the winner is…

Bet the Big game here!
Bet the Big game here!

Before I get started with the pick in the big game, please take time to click on the link above or below and check our Bet Jamaica. If you look at any rating site they are highly rated, safe, and the have the quickest payout method out of any sportsbook in business today!

Now on to the game. I am not a fan of either team so it is very easy for me to stay neutral in this game. I am a big fan of the Cardinals mainly because they are an underdog and in this game it is very easy to root for the Cinderella story! The problem is this clock has struck midnight. The Cardinals had a great run and I am impressed with Warner and love the fact that everyone now knows who Larry Fitzgerald is, but sorry Cardinals fans the Steelers have the edge here.

Let’s start with experience which almost every Steeler player has and teams playing in their first Super Bowl versus an experienced opponent are 5-11 ATS.That’s not all.

The Steelers will be champs..again!
The Steelers will be champs..again!

The hardest one for me to ignore is that highly rated defense. Objectors would state that Philly had the #3 defense, but it does not match to this defense and the plan that Dick LeBeau can come up with to counter whatever the Cardinals throw at them. The guy is a defensive genius! He has a game plan that will take some time for Warner and his gifted wideouts to get used to. In the meantime the Cardinals offense will have their hands full because the running game is solid for the Steelers and if that is not enough the passing game behind Big Ben is not too shabby either. He has the reliable Hines Ward and deep threats with Holmes and Co. The Cardinals have to be flawless or they are looking at a hole that they will have to play out of.

It won’t happen and the pressure will cause Warner to go back to his turnover ways and abandon the run. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS off home win and 32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better. Steelers roll!

Pittsburgh -6.5

As far as the total goes I am going to back the over here, mainly because I am not sure if the Cards can stop the Steeler offense and the Cardinals offense should score once or twice.

OVER 46.5

FINAL PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 36 Arizona 14

Enjoy the superbowl and check back for more great picks with hoops and March Madness just around the corner!

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Now on to the picks!

NFC Championship

This post season has been a post season for the underdogs and its nice to get a home one for this game. The Cardinals are at home and that to me is a huge, because they have played well here all year. Here is a great stat against the Eagles.Since 1982, teams that knock off the Super Bowl champ are 0-10 straight up and 1-9 against the spread the following week! That is amazing and that just shows you how hard it is to rebound from a big win in the playoffs like that!

The Cardinals have been doing it with defense and running and the fact that no one can stop Larry Fitzgerald.

Arizona +3
Arizona +3

The Cardinals have’covered seven of their last 10 at home and look great with the points this week!The energy and the crowd will help the Cardinals get revenge for a loss to the Eagles earlier this season.

Take the points and the Cardinals!

Arizona +3

AFC Championship

The Steelers have looked poised all year to make a run at the big game as they have played the best defense in the game. This week they face  a Ravens team that they have already beaten twice with a unproven rookie at the helm in Joe Flaco.Baltimore has cashed eight of nine against conference foes and six of seven versus division opponents.

Ravens +6
Ravens +6

The Ravens are 9-0 ATS coming off an extremely close road win by three points or less as well. Even thought they are at home it will be asking for alot to have a team beat another team for the third time in the season.The Steelers have come up short in four of their last five ATS in conference championship games.Pittsburgh has also dropped nine straight spread decisions after scoring 35 points or more in its last game.Baltimore has won 11 of its past 13 games and is 7-3 on the road, including 2-0 in the postseason. This will be a tough game that will go down to the wire with Baltimore having a real shot of pulling off what seems like the impossible upset. Take the Ravens plus the points as meetings between these two teams always end up close!

Ravens +6

Eagles At Giants

I am back after a break to take on the NFC Divisional game between the Eagles and the Giants! The winner takes on the surprising Arizona Cardinals.

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Click the Banner For the Latest Line!

When it comes to hot teams, the Eagles are flying higher then the defending champions right now heading into this game. In fact the Eagles have already beaten them in the meadowlands this year so the Eagles will not be intidated coming into this game. The difference is this time the Gianst will have a healthy backfield to rush with.

The Giants have cashed eight of their last nine avenging a home loss and they have ‘covered’ 10 of 11 versus good teams – outscoring opponents by 6+ points per game.The defending champs are 8-2 as favorites of between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points this year. In fact the Boys in blue are 5-0 ATS in playoff games and 6-0 ATS revenging loss as favorit.

The Giants know how to turn it up in the post season and beat the Eagles handedly today!

Giants -4
Giants -4

Bet the Game HERE:

AFC WildCard game: Ravens at Dolphins

AFC Wild Card

Ravens @ Dolphins

See the latest line here!
See the latest line here!

These two teams have shocked the world by even making it this far.

The Ravens had to do it with a young offenisve unit and rookie coach behind an aging defense.

For the Dolphins they had to come out of the cellar with the the help of a new coach and a new sherriff in town in Bill Parcells.

One thing that we noticed yesterday is that the home teams will be playing tough and we get our second rookie signal caller on the road. Miami comes into the game with revenge for losing in week seven. When it comes to turnovers this game gets interesting. Baltimore has caused the most in the league while the Dolphins are the best at holding  on the the ball. So in essence something has to give.

Can the ravens stop the Wildcat?
Can the ravens stop the Wildcat?

The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk. Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round and they are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.

Note that Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco did not start or end the regular season particularly well. Through five games, he had just one TD against seven INT’s and 2:3 ratio over the final four games. With Matt Ryan’s loss yesterday, rookie QB’s dropped to 2-7 all-time in the first-time playoff starts.

Home Underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95 as mentioned yesterday and Miami has the talent to keep this close. As I mentioned Miami is very good at holding on to the ball one of the best in the league and that is good news.

Turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 119-24-3 ATS (83.2%).

Did you get in the contest?
Did you get in the contest?

The fish keep this close where the points are worth the take and don’t be surprised if they are moving on to the next round!

Miami +3.5

AFC Wild Card game

AFC Wild Card

Colts @ Chargers

Free NFL Playoff Contest for $50,000!
Free NFL Playoff Contest for $50,000!

The biggest news is that it was just announced that LT is a game time decision and he has a detached tendon in his groin! (Ouch!)

–So let me stop right here and say if you like the Colts then get them now because this news will make the line jump! Now back to your scheduled write up

While this is big news in the playoffs for LT to be hurting I don’t think it will matter I think he will suit up and play tonight and he may not be at 100% but Sproles has been elusive and a yard gainer when filling in.

The Colts went on a nine in a row run to win the wild card and get an invite to San Diego for this game. With that run Peyton Manning went on to secure an MVP trophy. It is interesting to note that wildcard road teams that won 11 games or more in the regular season are just 5-6 SU & 4-6-1 ATS (40%) in their first playoff game.

The Chargers had to go on an impressive run to win four straight down the stretch to include a comeback against KC and a tough road win over the Bucs. Phillip Rivers is having one of his best years of his career and is ready for this game tonight. Rivers now faces a Colts defense that’s allowed just six touchdown passes – the fewest ever by a team in a 16-game season. That unit, though, will be without linebacker and defensive captain Gary Brackett, who will miss his fifth straight game with a cracked bone in his lower right leg. With the announcement of the injury of LT, this line should go up and make the Chargers a dog of maybe even 3 or more which is good to know for Bolt backers as home underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95.

Can Rivers lead the Bolts to a win?
Can Rivers lead the Bolts to a win?

There are some other good statistical trends that back the bolts
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 24-16 ATS (60.0%)
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 27-19 ATS (58.7%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing are 25-18 ATS (58.1%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing and yield fewer rushing yards per game are 10-5 ATS (66.7%)
And some against the Colts

Road teams that allow 4.15 YPR or more are just 11-17 ATS (39.3%)
Teams that allow fewer passing yards per attempt on the season are 37-45 ATS (45.0%).

I am going with the Chargers in this game. The colts beat them once at home and will try to do it for a second time this year and the Chargers have proven that they can play the Colts tough. The Chargers are 19-8 ATS vs. conference and 6-0 ATS at home off SU win. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. They are also 14-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Play Against – Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Play On – Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) good offensive team – scoring 24 or more points/game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )

I am taking the Chargers in this game. I am going to wait to game time thinking that the line will move in favor of the Colts and I will be able to steal some points in what could be a close game.

Chargers +

Shanahan is fired in Denver

Wow this is big news he had been there forever!!! Make sure to sign up at Bet Jamaica for the free NFL playoff contest! Click the banner on the right sidebar to get in for free!

DENVER — Mike Shanahan became the latest and most stunning victim of the NFL coaching purge, fired Tuesday by the Denver Broncos after a late-season collapse knocked the team out of the playoffs for the third straight year.

Shanahan joined Eric Mangini, Rod Marinelli and Romeo Crennel on the unemployment line after going 24-24 over the past three seasons, including three straight losses in 2008 that turned a three-game division lead to an 8-8 record.

Good Start, Rough Finish

In four years with John Elway, Mike Shanahan and the Broncos made the playoffs three times and won two Super Bowls. After Elway retired, the Broncos have no championships.

1995-98 1999-2008
W-L 47-17 91-69
Win pct. .734 .569
Division titles 2 1
Playoff W-L 7-1 1-4

Despite that, and the 52-21 loss to the Chargers that ended Denver’s season Sunday, this was a shocker: the ouster of a 14-year coaching veteran who brought two Super Bowl titles to a city yearning for a championship and was considered by many in this town to be “coach for life.”

In a statement, Broncos owner Pat Bowlen said: “After giving this careful consideration, I have concluded that a change in our football operations is in the best interests of the Denver Broncos. This is certainly a difficult decision, but one that I feel must be made and which will ultimately be in the best interests of all concerned.”

Shanahan, 56, was 146-89, but the Broncos remained stuck at only one postseason victory since John Elway retired in 1999 after Denver’s second championship.

This season was especially ugly. It included a historic collapse that saw Denver become the first team since divisional play started in 1967 to blow a three-game lead with three games left.

The Broncos’ defense gave up 448 points, third worst in the NFL, including 112 during the three-game collapse at the end. It was ranked 29th in yards allowed and tied for last in the NFL with a minus-17 turnover margin.

AFC West blog

ESPN.com’s Bill Williamson writes about all things AFC West in his division blog.

• Blog network: NFL Nation

In years past, Shanahan had relieved defensive coordinators — Greg Robinson, Ray Rhodes, Larry Coyer and Jim Bates — in almost revolving-door fashion.

This year, as the defense floundered, it became obvious it wasn’t just a coaching problem. It was an issue of talent on the field, and in Denver, Shanahan makes all the personnel decisions.

His top two draft picks in 2007, Jarvis Moss and Channing Crowder, were barely a factor this season. Two of Denver’s top veteran acquisitions from last year, Niko Koutouvides and Dewayne Robertson, also did very little.

Shanahan had three years left on his contract, worth about $20 million.

“I appreciate the 21 years that Mike Shanahan has given to the organization as an assistant and head coach, and the two Super Bowl wins in that time,” Bowlen said in the statement. “His contributions hold a special place in Broncos history.”

Bowlen said that the team will hold a news conference on Wednesday morning to make the announcement, and Shanahan will speak shortly thereafter.