Tag Archives: San Diego Chargers

AFC Wild Card game

AFC Wild Card

Colts @ Chargers

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The biggest news is that it was just announced that LT is a game time decision and he has a detached tendon in his groin! (Ouch!)

–So let me stop right here and say if you like the Colts then get them now because this news will make the line jump! Now back to your scheduled write up

While this is big news in the playoffs for LT to be hurting I don’t think it will matter I think he will suit up and play tonight and he may not be at 100% but Sproles has been elusive and a yard gainer when filling in.

The Colts went on a nine in a row run to win the wild card and get an invite to San Diego for this game. With that run Peyton Manning went on to secure an MVP trophy. It is interesting to note that wildcard road teams that won 11 games or more in the regular season are just 5-6 SU & 4-6-1 ATS (40%) in their first playoff game.

The Chargers had to go on an impressive run to win four straight down the stretch to include a comeback against KC and a tough road win over the Bucs. Phillip Rivers is having one of his best years of his career and is ready for this game tonight. Rivers now faces a Colts defense that’s allowed just six touchdown passes – the fewest ever by a team in a 16-game season. That unit, though, will be without linebacker and defensive captain Gary Brackett, who will miss his fifth straight game with a cracked bone in his lower right leg. With the announcement of the injury of LT, this line should go up and make the Chargers a dog of maybe even 3 or more which is good to know for Bolt backers as home underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95.

Can Rivers lead the Bolts to a win?
Can Rivers lead the Bolts to a win?

There are some other good statistical trends that back the bolts
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 24-16 ATS (60.0%)
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 45-37 ATS (55.0%).
Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 27-19 ATS (58.7%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing are 25-18 ATS (58.1%)
Teams that gain more yards per attempt both rushing AND passing and yield fewer rushing yards per game are 10-5 ATS (66.7%)
And some against the Colts

Road teams that allow 4.15 YPR or more are just 11-17 ATS (39.3%)
Teams that allow fewer passing yards per attempt on the season are 37-45 ATS (45.0%).

I am going with the Chargers in this game. The colts beat them once at home and will try to do it for a second time this year and the Chargers have proven that they can play the Colts tough. The Chargers are 19-8 ATS vs. conference and 6-0 ATS at home off SU win. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. They are also 14-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Play Against – Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Play On – Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) good offensive team – scoring 24 or more points/game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.8 units )

I am taking the Chargers in this game. I am going to wait to game time thinking that the line will move in favor of the Colts and I will be able to steal some points in what could be a close game.

Chargers +

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