AFC Wild Card
Ravens @ Dolphins
These two teams have shocked the world by even making it this far.
The Ravens had to do it with a young offenisve unit and rookie coach behind an aging defense.
For the Dolphins they had to come out of the cellar with the the help of a new coach and a new sherriff in town in Bill Parcells.
One thing that we noticed yesterday is that the home teams will be playing tough and we get our second rookie signal caller on the road. Miami comes into the game with revenge for losing in week seven. When it comes to turnovers this game gets interesting. Baltimore has caused the most in the league while the Dolphins are the best at holding on the the ball. So in essence something has to give.
The Ravens covered five of last six road games, but are just 1-8 ATS as road chalk. Teams like Miami that have not been in the playoffs for three or more years are 18-8 ATS in the Wild Card round and they are 18-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points.
Note that Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco did not start or end the regular season particularly well. Through five games, he had just one TD against seven INT’s and 2:3 ratio over the final four games. With Matt Ryan’s loss yesterday, rookie QB’s dropped to 2-7 all-time in the first-time playoff starts.
Home Underdogs in the Wildcard Round are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS since ’95 as mentioned yesterday and Miami has the talent to keep this close. As I mentioned Miami is very good at holding on to the ball one of the best in the league and that is good news.
Turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 119-24-3 ATS (83.2%).
The fish keep this close where the points are worth the take and don’t be surprised if they are moving on to the next round!