This is rare for me because I usually don’t take totals without knowing the umpire but that won’t be announced to later and I am ready to pull this trigger now. Both teams are hitting the ball well early (thanks to Washington) and the wind is blowing out tonight. The starting pitchers are less than stellar and the pens give up some runs. Here come your trends: Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter–Over is 11-3 in Braves last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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Now on to the game. I am not a fan of either team so it is very easy for me to stay neutral in this game. I am a big fan of the Cardinals mainly because they are an underdog and in this game it is very easy to root for the Cinderella story! The problem is this clock has struck midnight. The Cardinals had a great run and I am impressed with Warner and love the fact that everyone now knows who Larry Fitzgerald is, but sorry Cardinals fans the Steelers have the edge here.
Let’s start with experience which almost every Steeler player has and teams playing in their first Super Bowl versus an experienced opponent are 5-11 ATS.That’s not all.
The Steelers will be champs..again!
The hardest one for me to ignore is that highly rated defense. Objectors would state that Philly had the #3 defense, but it does not match to this defense and the plan that Dick LeBeau can come up with to counter whatever the Cardinals throw at them. The guy is a defensive genius! He has a game plan that will take some time for Warner and his gifted wideouts to get used to. In the meantime the Cardinals offense will have their hands full because the running game is solid for the Steelers and if that is not enough the passing game behind Big Ben is not too shabby either. He has the reliable Hines Ward and deep threats with Holmes and Co. The Cardinals have to be flawless or they are looking at a hole that they will have to play out of.
It won’t happen and the pressure will cause Warner to go back to his turnover ways and abandon the run. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS off home win and 32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better. Steelers roll!
As far as the total goes I am going to back the over here, mainly because I am not sure if the Cards can stop the Steeler offense and the Cardinals offense should score once or twice.
The Jazz come in with some revenge for an absolute drubbing they took in San Antonio last time out. Utah has cashed five of six versus San Antonio at Energy Solutions Arena and have cashed 20 of 27 versus Southwest Division rivals. The Spurs are 8-18 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less and the Jazz are 11-2 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses. It may be asking a lot for the Spurs to lose again but I will take the home team here.
Back after a break with some solid plays for the NBA!
The theme tonight seems to be bad teams and small lines, and that usually sets off my radar. Everyone has the it looks to good to be true theory and the stinky line. The theory is Vegas is on to something or it looks too good to be true and this is all over the place tonight and in the first game.
Phoenix just -4 at lowly Washington? What gives? Normally I would hop all over this game and take the home team getting the small points, but not here. I have noticed when teams are on a extended road trip in the NBA the goal is to go .500 or better. If the Suns get that they can achieve a 3-3 mark on this trip and that might be just what the Suns need to motivate them here. I am staying away from the this side but I will play the total.
The Suns realized that is they play some defense they may win and the shut out the Hawks in the last six minutes of the game and that is something that they will preach tonight to try and get another win. On the other side of the ball the Wizards return from a road trip and this is always a good time to back the under if the road trip was three games or more. This game should go under the posted total as the Suns lead with defense and the Wizards are still sluggish from the road.
The 76ers will beat the Hornets straight up!
Like Washington +4 who very well could cover…… the next game follows suit with a small number as the Rockets are just 2 point favorites on the road against the Knicks. This one I really want to bite on but the problem is you never know who is going to show up for the Rockets. When T-Mac is in Yao is not or Artest is out. The thing is I don’t think it matters tonight and I like the Knicks here as I think they should be favored.
i like it even more if Yao suits up. The Rockets are 5-15 ATS after an ATS win and the Knicks are 11-1 ATS after scoring 105+ in 3 straight game. The Knicks are playing inspired basketball and they will get the win at home tonight.
Miami takes on the Heat in the next game and they are off a very big win in a game against the Magic. “It’s very satisfying to get this one,” Wade said. “We had to prove to ourselves, once again, that we can beat the elite teams.” This shows just how much it meant and how letdown will be in effect tonight. In fact it also sets up for some bad trends for Heat backers, they are just 2-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and they are 3-10 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent.
The Hawks need to start winning and the Heat may be just what they need. They are 12-4 ATS as road pups and should catch the Heat napping. The Hawks and the points is how I am headed tonight.
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What a great game for NBA fans tonight on TNT!!! This great clash makes for some great basketball!!
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Boston @ Orlando
I am really excited for the first game as the Celtics battle the Magic in what should be a really good game of two powerhouse teams in the East.
The home team has held the upper hand in this rivalry, cashing 21 of 28, and the favorite is 19-7 in the past 26 series showdowns.
The Magic are 10-1 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage above .600 and they have covered six of their last seven at home.
Boston has dropped four of five ATS when playing without rest and failed to cash five of six at Amway Arena. Orlando lost to Boston once this season and they are an amazing 22-3 ATS playing with same season revenge. The Magic have had this game circled for a long time and they come out and make a statement tonight, the depth (or lack thereof) of the Celtics will hurt them tonight.
Dwight Howard faces the Celtics on TNT!
The Magic are looking forward to this game. “It means a lot,” Magic forward Rashard Lewis said. “Obviously, Eastern Conference game, one of the best teams in the conference, last year’s champion. We’re at a point where we want to get home-court advantage throughout the whole playoffs, so this game means a lot. At the end of the season, it’s going to come down to games like this.”
The Magic are perfect 12-0 ATS versus offensive teams scoring 99 or more points per game this season.They are 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and are 14-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins this season. I will take the home favorite in this game.
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Memphis @ Charlotte–Really wanted to back Memphis as they played hard against the Pistons but The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS versus Southeast foes, 2-9 ATS on the road and 0-6 ATS overall and those are numbers I can’t back and I am not ready trust Charlotte as 6 point favorites against anyone.
Boston @ Miami–this line is low enough to attract Boston bettors and they seem to have rebounded very well after the losing streak. The thing is I am on the Heat. I love to back home teams coming off a road trip of 3 games or more as a small number either way. The Celtics just beat the Suns and will have one eye on the meeting with the Magic tomorrow and look right past the heat. Boston has faltered in seven of its last 10 on the road ATS and the Celtics are 0-6 ATS of late when facing teams with a winning record.
Raptors @ Detroit–passing on this game but I suggest that if you take the Raptors you look at the injury reports because they have been playing about nine deep in the last two to three games and that has to be catching up with them. The Raptors have failed in five of their last seven visits ATS and in six of seven against the Pistons overall. If I was going to play it would be Detroit, but I am passing as mentioned.
Phoenix @ New York–The Suns are on the end of a road trip and you have to imagine the K nicks may have this one circled on the calendar. Mike D’Antoni had a shot at his former club and blew it but now they are in a much better position. Phoenix has been one of the worst bets on the board since the end of November (5-17-1 ATS). The Suns have stumbled in six of their last eight against New York ATS. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 outings on the road and 0-4-1 ATS outside their conference. The Knicks have covered at an 8-3-1 rate when facing winning teams and four straight versus Pacific Division opposition.Knicks keep it close to the wire tonight.
Dallas @ Milwaukee–The Mavericks haven’t had much luck at the Bradley Center, dropping eight straight ATS. The Bucks look to rebound after losing two straight but they will have to take on a healthy Dallas squad to do it. Dallas is is 6-20-1 ATS when facing Central Division denizens. The Bucks have cashed eight straight versus Southwest Division opponents. Dallas is 7-19 ATS off road win That is enough for me to take my third home dog tonight.
Taking over the total in this game too. The Mavericks started slow in Philly but will be heated up and ready to score and Milwaukee will keep pace.Eleven of the past 14 series scuffles have tipped over. Milwaukee has gone over in eight of its last 10 tries. Take the over in a this high scoring affair.
Utah @ Houston–I simply love Utah in this game as they match up well against the Rockets and always play them tough. The Jazz lost in their initial visit to the Toyota Center as nine-point dogs, 120-115, but cashed for the sixth time in seven road meetings. They are 11-4 ATS in the past 15 clashes with the Rockets. Utah has also covered 20 of 27 versus Southwest Division opponents. Houston has sputtered in 10 of 14 ATS overall and dropped six of eight spread decisions at home. The Jazz are worth a look on the moneyline here.
OKC @ Golden St.–passing but if I were to like anything in this game it would be the over but what else do you expect in a Golden St game?
Lakers @ Clippers–With or without Kobe the Lakers can’t be taking the Clippers seriously and I can’t bet on the Clippers, pass.
Wizards @ Kings–I can’t back the Kings as favorites nor can I back the Wizards on the road, another pass for me.
Greg Oden and the Blazers take on King James and the Cavs!
Cleveland @ Portland–I know it may not seem like it, but I think the Blazers are better than the Cavs and with a home court they should cruise tonight. Portland has cashed six of eight versus Cleveland at the Rose Garden and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six confrontations. The Cavaliers have faded in five of six on the road ATS while the Blazers have cashed 15 of 22 at home.
My NBA picks have been heating up and I have a few more for tonight!
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Kings +9
The Kings take on the Nuggets after they played a tough game yesterday against Houston. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS of late in back-to-back mode.The Kings have covered five straight at the Pepsi Center and the road team is 8-0-1 in the last nine tussles. Playing with revenge and getting the Nuggets in a good spot equals a live dog with the Kings. The Kings also have a sweet system in their favor.
Play On underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 30 points or more, who are well rested team, playing only their 2nd game in five days.
This has been a tremendous wager, with the underdog 26-4 ATS the last five seasons.Finally the Kings are 23-11 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two years.Get the points now and take a shot with the Kings.
Spurs / Pacers Over 207.5
This high number is something that Spurs bettors are not used to and the first instinct is to jump on the under. The style of basketball that Indiana pays suggests that exact opposite.
The Spurs face the Pacers tonight!
The shoot quick and look for transition an if you look close at the Spurs at home they can score points as well. San Antonio has zipped over in six straight at home and in five of seven against non-conference foes. These two teams always tend to score on the high side. The over is 11-2 in the last dozen duels. Take a flier on the over!
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